It seems likely, as the turnout thus far is "absolutely huge", according to the New Hampshire Deputy Secretary of State. So huge, infact, that there are concerns about running out of ballots... Democratic ballots, to be specific. Undecided voters are apparently voting Democratic, by a large margin.
The weather is excellent, the turn out is enormous, and it looks like another excellent performance for progressive candidates in New Hampshire. An Obama victory appears likely, as everything he could want demographically is falling into place. The latest polls from South Carolina put him way ahead there, so it looks like Obama will pick up even more momentum before Super Tuesday.
What I find particularly interesting, however, is that Barack Obama is going from New Hampshire to campaign in New York and New Jersey, Hillary Clinton's stronghold... assuming that she will actually have a stronghold after another big loss. Hillary Clinton's campaign apparently is running short on funds, and appears ready to write off South Carolina. As such, they will need to really focus on a few states such as Nevada that, under normal situations, should be fairly easy wins but under current conditions will be anything but.
Hillary absolutely needs a couple wins soon after S.C. falls into the Obama camp, but risks having New York and New Jersey put into serious contention while she's trying to eke out a victory elsewhere. It's entirely possible that Obama could win this race by heavilly focusing on New York and California, and making use of the proximity to NYC and LA to raise money and rack up numerous national TV appearances. It's got to be giving Hillary's campaign serious conniption fits, because the bedrock they thought they were standing on has turned to quicksand.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Saturday, January 5, 2008
What a difference a day makes!
The new post-Iowa polls have come in from New Hampshire... and it looks like we'll have to get used to the expression "frontrunner Barack Obama"!
The ARG poll has the race at
38% Obama
26% Clinton
20% Edwards
And Rasmussen Reports calls it at:
37% Obama
27% Clinton
19% Edwards
Frankly, it's awesome to see these numbers, though I hope that John Edwards will once more beat out Hillary Clinton in this race.
So, it's clear Obama has the momentum, but how does he compare face-to-face against the other candidates? Well, according to NBC's review of the debate tonight, he compares pretty well.
From NBC's Chuck Todd:
"Obama seemed to pass his test with flying colors. He got to look in command (telling Edwards, politely, when it was his turn to speak); he defended himself against Clinton by lecturing her tone and then got to look like the "normal" one by letting the moderator know who won the 'Skins game.
I'm not sure David Axelrod could have scripted this debate better if he did it himself.
Clinton as challenger? Well, she was dealt a real bodyblow when Edwards decided to defend Obama from the Clinton attack early on in the debate; that exchange will be the one played over and over again, and it's not good for Clinton."
Apparently, John Edwards can sense weakness in the Hillary camp... and he seems determined to help kill off her chances in the national race, as soon as possible. Good strategy, and thankfully one that benefits all progressives, regardless of who wins.
It also, of course, helps set the stage for Obama/Edwards '08. Or even Edwards/Obama '08, if he can find his footing and start pulling out a few victories. However, if Edwards is going to do it, he needs to do it soon. By signing on to federal matching funds, he has unfortunately limited his ability to raise additional funds that he will *need* towards the end of the race if states are still in contention. If he thinks he's getting outspent now, well... it's gonna get worse.
Ultimately, Obama and Edwards are *both* excellent candidates, and would be the biggest win for progressives in this country since JFK... maybe even FDR. But why look backwards, when we all can smile tonight and look forward to real change?
Can you feel it coming?! I can.
The ARG poll has the race at
38% Obama
26% Clinton
20% Edwards
And Rasmussen Reports calls it at:
37% Obama
27% Clinton
19% Edwards
Frankly, it's awesome to see these numbers, though I hope that John Edwards will once more beat out Hillary Clinton in this race.
So, it's clear Obama has the momentum, but how does he compare face-to-face against the other candidates? Well, according to NBC's review of the debate tonight, he compares pretty well.
From NBC's Chuck Todd:
"Obama seemed to pass his test with flying colors. He got to look in command (telling Edwards, politely, when it was his turn to speak); he defended himself against Clinton by lecturing her tone and then got to look like the "normal" one by letting the moderator know who won the 'Skins game.
I'm not sure David Axelrod could have scripted this debate better if he did it himself.
Clinton as challenger? Well, she was dealt a real bodyblow when Edwards decided to defend Obama from the Clinton attack early on in the debate; that exchange will be the one played over and over again, and it's not good for Clinton."
Apparently, John Edwards can sense weakness in the Hillary camp... and he seems determined to help kill off her chances in the national race, as soon as possible. Good strategy, and thankfully one that benefits all progressives, regardless of who wins.
It also, of course, helps set the stage for Obama/Edwards '08. Or even Edwards/Obama '08, if he can find his footing and start pulling out a few victories. However, if Edwards is going to do it, he needs to do it soon. By signing on to federal matching funds, he has unfortunately limited his ability to raise additional funds that he will *need* towards the end of the race if states are still in contention. If he thinks he's getting outspent now, well... it's gonna get worse.
Ultimately, Obama and Edwards are *both* excellent candidates, and would be the biggest win for progressives in this country since JFK... maybe even FDR. But why look backwards, when we all can smile tonight and look forward to real change?
Can you feel it coming?! I can.
Friday, January 4, 2008
Welcome to Obama / Edwards 2008!
So, it's the morning after the Iowa Caucus.
Barack Obama has chalked up a resounding victory with some truely impressive, populist stats that reach beyond race, sex, and party affilitation, while John Edwards has secured second place, slightly ahead of Hillary Clinton.
Progressive Democrats Win! Iowa wins too, with record participation in their caucus!
So, it's victory for many of us, but what about five days from now in New Hampshire? Hillary Clinton is several points ahead in the latest polls, and due to New Hampshire primary rules, Independents and disillusioned Republicans won't be able to help either Obama or Edwards chalk up another progressive victory.
Hi, I'm Mark Kraft, a progressive Democrat who supports Barack Obama -- Gore, sadly, didn't enter the race this time around -- but who is not affiliated with any political campaign or organization.
I created this blog to share my thoughts with you -- and ideally allow you to share your thoughts with all of us -- about how I believe that we, as Democrats, as independents, as disillusioned Republicans, as Libertarians, and, infact, as Americans, need change and real reform.
I believe the best, most certain guarantee for us to obtain that change is for all of us to demand the one likely ticket available to us that can beat deficit spending, dollar deflating Republicans (you disillusioned Republicans and "I'm goddamn mad..." independents out there know which people I am talking about), beat the "special interest lovin', partisan politics as usual" Democrats, and elect the most honest yet electable candidates available to us.
After last night, I feel pretty sure that America needs Barack Obama and John Edwards. Are they perfect? No. But they are the best shot we have.
Because several of the upcoming primaries require voters to register as Democrats in advance, Barack Obama is going to need John Edwards supporters to come on board as soon as possible if he's going to beat Hillary Clinton... no two ways about it. If Edwards cannot climb in the polls PDQ -- ideally before New Hampshire -- I believe that he should do his constituents and the issues he believes in a favor, and gracefully bow out of the race, endorsing Barack Obama as the most likely candidate to bring change to this country.
If, however, Edwards stays in the race too long, there is a risk that he could find himself the Ralph Nader of 2008, splitting the Democratic reformists and giving us a series of Hillary Clinton victories, followed by an ugly national election, four to eight years of partisan squabbling, stonewalling, mudslinging, backbiting, scandals and gridlock... until, most likely, the next deficit spending, dollar deflating Republican steps up to the plate and does their level best to wipe out what's left of the Bill of Rights, the Constitution, and the American middle class.
None of us can afford this. As Ben Franklin once said, "We must all hang together... else, we shall most assuredly hang seperately."
It's time to start talking about how we're going to make Obama / Edwards a reality, and to unite progressives -- and all those Independents and Republicans out there who hate politics as usual, or just plain love the U.S. Constitution -- behind the kind of populist platform that would be good for the entire country.
We're *ALL* Americans. We're all facing a bunch of the same obvious problems -- out of control healthcare costs that's killing us years ahead of schedule, the need for clean, efficient energy independence, a restoration of our Constitutional rights, an end to budget-busting foriegn occupations -- and we all need real solutions for them.
And we all need an electable President and Vice President who isn't beholden to special interests and politics as usual, who can reach out and build political consensus, and who, with any luck, just might do something about the problems our nation faces.
Given the rules of the game, Obama / Edwards is our best bet. The best bet for Democrats, Independents, Republicans, Libertarians... for Americans... to bring about meaningful change in this country.
We should start a discussion, and I want you all to be a part of it. If you have a blog, please throw a link my way, take part in the discussions, and start talking about Obama/Edwards. I'm also willing to accept submissions from others to post in this journal, and plan on reposting some of the best, most insightful comments and links to the main page.
So... let's get going already!
Barack Obama has chalked up a resounding victory with some truely impressive, populist stats that reach beyond race, sex, and party affilitation, while John Edwards has secured second place, slightly ahead of Hillary Clinton.
Progressive Democrats Win! Iowa wins too, with record participation in their caucus!
So, it's victory for many of us, but what about five days from now in New Hampshire? Hillary Clinton is several points ahead in the latest polls, and due to New Hampshire primary rules, Independents and disillusioned Republicans won't be able to help either Obama or Edwards chalk up another progressive victory.
Hi, I'm Mark Kraft, a progressive Democrat who supports Barack Obama -- Gore, sadly, didn't enter the race this time around -- but who is not affiliated with any political campaign or organization.
I created this blog to share my thoughts with you -- and ideally allow you to share your thoughts with all of us -- about how I believe that we, as Democrats, as independents, as disillusioned Republicans, as Libertarians, and, infact, as Americans, need change and real reform.
I believe the best, most certain guarantee for us to obtain that change is for all of us to demand the one likely ticket available to us that can beat deficit spending, dollar deflating Republicans (you disillusioned Republicans and "I'm goddamn mad..." independents out there know which people I am talking about), beat the "special interest lovin', partisan politics as usual" Democrats, and elect the most honest yet electable candidates available to us.
After last night, I feel pretty sure that America needs Barack Obama and John Edwards. Are they perfect? No. But they are the best shot we have.
Because several of the upcoming primaries require voters to register as Democrats in advance, Barack Obama is going to need John Edwards supporters to come on board as soon as possible if he's going to beat Hillary Clinton... no two ways about it. If Edwards cannot climb in the polls PDQ -- ideally before New Hampshire -- I believe that he should do his constituents and the issues he believes in a favor, and gracefully bow out of the race, endorsing Barack Obama as the most likely candidate to bring change to this country.
If, however, Edwards stays in the race too long, there is a risk that he could find himself the Ralph Nader of 2008, splitting the Democratic reformists and giving us a series of Hillary Clinton victories, followed by an ugly national election, four to eight years of partisan squabbling, stonewalling, mudslinging, backbiting, scandals and gridlock... until, most likely, the next deficit spending, dollar deflating Republican steps up to the plate and does their level best to wipe out what's left of the Bill of Rights, the Constitution, and the American middle class.
None of us can afford this. As Ben Franklin once said, "We must all hang together... else, we shall most assuredly hang seperately."
It's time to start talking about how we're going to make Obama / Edwards a reality, and to unite progressives -- and all those Independents and Republicans out there who hate politics as usual, or just plain love the U.S. Constitution -- behind the kind of populist platform that would be good for the entire country.
We're *ALL* Americans. We're all facing a bunch of the same obvious problems -- out of control healthcare costs that's killing us years ahead of schedule, the need for clean, efficient energy independence, a restoration of our Constitutional rights, an end to budget-busting foriegn occupations -- and we all need real solutions for them.
And we all need an electable President and Vice President who isn't beholden to special interests and politics as usual, who can reach out and build political consensus, and who, with any luck, just might do something about the problems our nation faces.
Given the rules of the game, Obama / Edwards is our best bet. The best bet for Democrats, Independents, Republicans, Libertarians... for Americans... to bring about meaningful change in this country.
We should start a discussion, and I want you all to be a part of it. If you have a blog, please throw a link my way, take part in the discussions, and start talking about Obama/Edwards. I'm also willing to accept submissions from others to post in this journal, and plan on reposting some of the best, most insightful comments and links to the main page.
So... let's get going already!
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